2024 Race Tightens: Harris and Trump in Virtual Tie, New Polls Show
By Jake Beardslee ·
July 29, 2024
Recent polls suggest Vice President Kamala Harris has significantly narrowed the gap with former President Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential race, following President Joe Biden's unexpected exit from the campaign.
A Wall Street Journal poll shows Harris trailing Trump by a slim margin of 47% to 49%, with a 3.1% margin of error, indicating a potentially tight race. The White House / Gage Skidmore from Surprise, AZ, United States of America / Wikimedia
Similarly, a HarrisX/Forbes survey of over 3,000 registered voters found Harris behind Trump 45% to 47% in a two-way contest. However, when independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is included, Trump's lead shrinks to just one point. Becca Mahon/Battle Creek Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK
Harris's favorability ratings have seen a notable uptick since Biden's withdrawal. An ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted July 26-27 showed Harris's favorability at 43%, up from 35% in their previous poll. This puts her ahead of both Trump (36%) and Biden (37%) in terms of favorability. Christine Tannous/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK
The New York Times/Siena poll of 1,142 voters shows Trump leading by a single point among likely voters (48% to 47%) and two points among registered voters (48% to 46%). However, in a six-way race including third-party candidates, Harris and Trump are tied at 42% among registered voters. GREG LOVETT/THE PALM BEACH POST / USA TODAY NETWORK
Some polls even show Harris in the lead. Morning Consult's weekly presidential race poll puts Harris ahead at 46% to Trump's 45%, while a Reuters/Ipsos poll has her up 44% to 42%. Christine Tannous/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK
Harris's performance in swing states is also promising for Democrats. An Emerson College survey found Trump leading Harris by five or fewer points in four battleground states, with the two candidates tied in Wisconsin. Notably, Harris performs better than Biden did in all five states surveyed. Reid Glenn / USA TODAY NETWORK
Democratic enthusiasm for Harris appears high, with the Times/Siena survey finding that nearly 80% of Democrat-leaning voters would like Harris to be the nominee. This is a significant improvement from the 48% who said the same about Biden three weeks ago. Daniella Heminghaus / USA TODAY NETWORK
Despite Harris's gains, Trump still maintains a slight lead in aggregate polling. Real Clear Politics' polling average shows Trump ahead by 1.7 points, factoring in polls taken since Biden's withdrawal. Sara Diggins / USA TODAY NETWORK
However, Trump's campaign pollster, Tony Fabrizio, anticipates a "short term" bump for Harris in the coming weeks, dubbing it a "Harris Honeymoon" as her entrance into the race is expected to reinvigorate Democratic supporters. Mike De Sisti / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK
As the 2024 presidential race continues to evolve, these early polls suggest a highly competitive contest between Harris and Trump, with the potential for third-party candidates to play a significant role in the final outcome. Andrew Craft / USA TODAY NETWORK
