Politics
Democrats Gain Ground in Battle for House Majority
By Jake Beardslee · January 16, 2026
WASHINGTON — Democrats’ chances of reclaiming control of the U.S. House of Representatives in this year’s midterm elections have strengthened, according to a new analysis from the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
In its latest ratings update published Jan. 15, Cook shifted 18 House races in directions more favorable to Democrats. Eight contests moved from “Likely Democrat” to “Solid Democrat,” while seven races shifted into either “Toss Up” or “Lean Democrat” categories. Three districts previously rated “Solid Republican” were reclassified as “Likely Republican.”
Several competitive districts now fall into toss-up territory. Iowa’s 3rd Congressional District and New York’s 17th — both currently represented by Republicans — were newly designated as highly competitive. Ohio’s 9th District and Texas’ 34th District, which are currently held by Democrats but had been leaning Republican earlier in the cycle, also shifted into toss-up status.
Cook analyst Erin Covey pointed to broader political conditions benefiting Democrats, including President Donald Trump’s approval ratings and the party’s performance in recent special elections.
“House Democrats only need to flip three seats to win a majority,” Covey wrote. “Even if Democrats lose some of their own members defending particularly difficult seats, the number of Republicans in peril should give Democrats more than enough opportunities to win 218 seats.”
Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson is already facing challenges managing an unusually slim majority. The GOP currently holds a two-vote margin, which includes a Kentucky Republican lawmaker who frequently opposes legislation backed by President Trump. An upcoming special election later this spring is expected to fill a Democratic vacancy, potentially narrowing the Republican advantage to a single vote.
Efforts by Republicans to pursue midcycle redistricting have so far failed to materialize as the White House had hoped, though the strategy could still influence the electoral map. Meanwhile, California voters passed a gerrymandering initiative last November designed to expand Democratic representation in Congress. On Jan. 14, a federal appeals court rejected legal challenges from the Trump administration and California Republicans alleging the new district maps improperly favored Latino voters and other groups.
Despite these developments, Johnson expressed confidence in his party’s prospects, emphasizing fundraising strength.
“We are very bullish about the midterms,” Johnson said recently. “I’m absolutely convinced we’re going to grow the majority.”
The Cook report’s updated ratings suggest the battle for House control remains competitive, but Democrats appear to be gaining momentum as the midterm season approaches.