Politics

Gavin Newsom’s Chances Rising in 2028 Democratic Race: Poll

By Jake Beardslee · June 19, 2025

California Governor Gavin Newsom has seen his chances rise in the 2028 Democratic presidential primary, with his poll numbers more than doubling following his high-profile clash with President Donald Trump over immigration-related protests in Los Angeles.

Newsom gained national attention earlier this month after pushing back against Trump’s deployment of roughly 4,000 California National Guard troops and 700 U.S. Marines to the city. The president argued the federal government needed to step in to manage unrest following immigration raids, which had sparked large-scale protests. Newsom, however, insisted the situation was under control and sued to block the federalization of California’s National Guard.

“This is a serious breach of state sovereignty,” Newsom said, criticizing the move as a political stunt and accusing the Trump administration of disseminating “fake images” of the demonstrations.

Though a federal judge initially ruled in favor of Newsom, the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals issued a temporary stay on returning control of the Guard to the state.

The protest response appears to have strengthened Newsom’s standing among Democratic voters. According to a Morning Consult poll conducted from June 13 to 15, 11% of respondents now say they would back Newsom in the 2028 primary, up from 5% in March. While Vice President Kamala Harris remains the frontrunner with 34%, her support has slipped slightly from 36%. Other shifts include Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rising to 7%, tying with former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, whose support fell from 10%.

Newsom has long positioned himself as a progressive counterweight to Trump, and his recent handling of the crisis appears to have bolstered his national profile. Though he has not formally declared a run for president, he told The Wall Street Journal, “I’m not thinking about running, but it’s a path that I could see unfold.”

CNN analyst Harry Enten noted the recent surge in public interest: “If Gavin Newsom wanted to take on Donald Trump and loves the attention, he has 100 percent gotten it… Google searches of Gavin Newsom with Donald Trump… up 9,700 percent.”

While the Democratic field remains speculative, most candidates are expected to declare after the 2026 midterms. In the meantime, figures like Newsom are building visibility and testing public support in what may be a contentious primary cycle.