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JPMorgan strategist predicts health issues will cause Biden to abandon 2024 election

By Jake Beardslee · January 8, 2024

In brief…

  • Cembalest predicts Biden will drop out of the 2024 race citing health issues.
  • He believes Biden's age and mental fitness are liabilities despite decent economic record.
  • Harris, Phillips and Williamson have declared Democratic candidacies but Biden still leads polls.
  • Cembalest made other predictions like Americans rejecting self-driving cars and power blackouts.
Michael Cembalest predicts Biden will drop out of the 2024 presidential race due to health concerns, paving the way for a new Democratic nominee against Republican favorite Donald Trump.  The White House/Wikimedia

According to Michael Cembalest, a top strategist at JPMorgan Chase, President Joe Biden will likely drop out of the 2024 presidential race sometime between “Super Tuesday” on March 5 and the November general election. Cembalest predicts Biden will cite health concerns as his reason for exiting the race, given the president is already 81 years old.

Cembalest made the bold prediction in a recent newsletter outlining economic and political forecasts for 2024. He acknowledged Biden’s relatively strong job creation numbers since taking office, but suggested it is largely “the by-product of his inauguration coinciding with the rollout of COVID vaccines and a reopening US economy.”

With Biden’s approval rating lagging despite the economic gains, Cembalest believes the president’s age and perceived mental decline will make him vulnerable in a re-election bid. Cembalest did not name potential alternatives if Biden bows out, but Vice President Kamala Harris and long-shot candidates Rep. Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson have already declared their Democratic candidacies. Former president Donald Trump remains the clear Republican frontrunner if he runs again.

Cembalest made other predictions beyond the presidential race, including Americans rejecting self-driving cars after accidents in San Francisco, power blackouts in multiple states due to natural gas shortages, and strength for regional bank stocks despite lending instability.