Politics
Republicans Get Warning Sign in Deep Red Senate Race
By Jake Beardslee · June 6, 2025
Republicans received a potential warning sign for 2026 as a leading election forecaster reclassified Iowa’s Senate race, signaling growing competitiveness in a state long considered safely red.
Senator Joni Ernst, a Republican from Iowa seeking a third term, recently drew criticism for dismissing concerns about Medicaid cuts with the comment, “Well, we are all going to die.” The backlash, coupled with shifting political dynamics, has prompted Sabato’s Crystal Ball to revise its rating for the race from “Safe Republican” to “Likely Republican.”
Forecasters J. Miles Coleman and Kyle Kondik explained the change by pointing to a tougher climate for Ernst compared to past cycles. “In 2014, she won as part of a broader GOP wave and she got help from a gaffe-prone opponent,” they wrote. “Six years later, she won reelection as Trump was carrying Iowa by a strong margin.”
Ernst’s campaign remains confident. “Iowa is ruby red because Republicans like Joni Ernst have fought for policies that unleash the economy, lower taxes, and make our communities safer,” said her campaign manager, Bryan Kraber, in a statement to Newsweek. “Iowans know Joni is the best person for the job in 2026 because she fights for them and makes Washington squeal.”
Several Democrats have already entered the race, including Nathan Sage, a Marine Corps veteran and Chamber of Commerce leader, and state Representative J.D. Scholten, known for nearly defeating Steve King in 2018. State Senator Zach Wahls is also rumored to be considering a run.
Sage recently told The Gazette, “I’m out here trying to bring a little bit more of a voice of working-class individuals to Washington… trying to actually make Iowans thrive.”
Despite Democratic optimism, Republican operatives remain confident. NRSC spokesperson Nick Puglia previously told The Hill, “It doesn’t matter which radical Democrat gets nominated in their messy primary because Iowans are going to re-elect Senator Joni Ernst.”
Iowa’s primary election will be held June 2, 2026, with the general election set for November 3. The new forecast comes as Democrats also target competitive races in states like Maine, Georgia, and North Carolina.