Light Wave


Trump In Stronger Polling Position Than Ever In Political Career

By CM Chaney · November 23, 2023

In brief…

  • Trump takes lead over Biden in latest national poll as minority support shifts
  • Hispanic voter support for Biden drops 11 points in one year
  • African American support down 15 points for Biden over same period
  • Trump aiming to leverage indictments to his political benefit
  • Claims of biased legal witch hunt resonating with some minority voters
Donald Trump has overcome Joe Biden in national polling on the back of a dramatic one-year shift in support among Hispanic and African American voters that saw Biden’s leads with those key groups shrink by over 10 percentage points each even as Trump leverages his mounting legal troubles to claim he’s the victim of a political witch hunt.  Wikimedia

Former President Donald Trump has overtaken current President Joe Biden in national polling, with a new Emerson College survey showing Trump leading by 4 percentage points.

The poll signals a stunning shift in support among minority voters that has rapidly boosted Trump over the past year while eroding Biden’s standing.

The poll finds Trump with 47% support compared to Biden’s 43% - a lead fueled by Hispanic and African American voters, groups that have historically backed Democratic candidates by wide margins. Biden held a 14 point lead among Hispanic voters just one year ago, which has now shrunk to 3 points. Among African Americans, Biden’s lead has dropped a massive 15 points over the past 12 months to 47%.

Other recent swing state polls have shown similarly dramatic declines for Biden among nonwhite voters. A New York Times survey across six battleground states found that Biden’s support with minorities had plunged 33% compared to 2020 exit polls. At the same time, Trump’s support with African American voters has grown 22% since his defeat.

The reasons behind this monumental shift are unclear, but consistent polling has shown economic concerns like inflation and interest rates are top issues for voters heading into the 2024 election. In 2020 exit polls, Trump earned just 8% of the black vote and 38% of the Latino vote. But his standing with Latino voters grew 12 points between 2016 and 2020.

Despite facing four upcoming criminal trials related to efforts to overturn the 2020 election, hush money payments, and the mishandling of classified documents, Trump has now edged ahead of Biden in 11 out of 13 recent national polls. The RealClearPolitics polling average currently has Trump beating Biden 47.2% to 44.9% at this early stage of the campaign. The former president has aimed to spin the indictments to his political advantage by claiming he is the victim of a biased legal witch hunt.

If Trump can maintain, or even grow, his newfound support among minority voters while also keeping his leads with his base of white, working class, and rural voters, he could be well-positioned to mount a formidable 2024 challenge to Biden as the president struggles with declining approval ratings. But there are still over 700 days until the next election - an eternity in the fast-changing political climate.