Light Wave


Trump rises, Biden slips in 2024 election polls

By Jake Beardslee · December 16, 2023

In brief…

  • Trump leads Biden in polls of key swing states like Georgia, Michigan that could decide 2024 election
  • Trump is favorite for Republican nomination and well-positioned to potentially beat Biden
  • Biden struggling with public perception of economy, division within Democratic Party
  • Race could tighten as election nears, but polls show uphill climb for Biden
Former President Donald Trump currently leads President Joe Biden in polls of key swing states, indicating Trump is not only favored to win the 2024 Republican nomination but also well-positioned to potentially defeat Biden.  Tom Williams/Adam Schultz/Wikimedia

Recent opinion polls indicate former President Donald Trump leading current President Joe Biden in pivotal battleground states that will likely determine the outcome of the 2024 election. This shows Trump is not only the clear favorite to win the Republican nomination, but also well-positioned to reclaim the presidency less than a year out from election day.

Trump bests Biden in hypothetical head-to-head contests both with and without third-party contenders in states including Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania - all states Biden carried in 2020, according to The Hill. Trump will need to flip back at least some of those states to win in 2024.

The polls highlight Biden has work ahead even as experts agree much could change before November 2024. “I think it illustrates where we are at in both the former president and the current president’s trajectory heading into November 2024,” said Nick Trainer, a former Trump campaign official, on the “Yes Labels” podcast.

A CNN survey showed Trump topping Biden by 5 points in Georgia, which Biden won by roughly 12,000 votes in 2020. It also found Trump up by 10 in Michigan, which Biden carried by about 155,000 votes. Majorities believe Biden’s policies have worsened economic conditions. A Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll similarly found Biden struggling versus Trump across several swing states.

While unclear if any will make the ballot, it still looks bad for Biden, who’d need to keep most of those states to win 270 electoral votes. National polls also show a tight hypothetical race, but Trump could realistically win the White House again without the popular vote, as he did in 2016.

Trump remains the clear GOP frontrunner, while Biden battles division within his party on issues like immigration and Israel. His approval rating has stagnated around 40% for months. Concerns remain about his chances against Trump, even as allies dismiss worries about polls this far out.