Politics
Trump’s Economy Takes a Hit as Economists React: ‘Yikes’
By Jake Beardslee · December 4, 2025
New payroll data from ADP has intensified scrutiny of President Donald Trump’s claims about a strong U.S. economy, as economists expressed alarm on Wednesday after the private payroll firm estimated that the country lost 32,000 jobs in November. CNBC reported that the decline represented a major miss from forecasts of 40,000 job gains and noted that the job loss “was the biggest drop since March 2023.”
Small businesses experienced the steepest setbacks. ADP data showed that companies with fewer than 50 employees shed 120,000 jobs—wiping out the 90,000 jobs added by medium and large firms. Economists say the imbalance highlights widening disparities across the labor market.
Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, reacted bluntly to the report on X, writing “Yikes,” and adding, “Most industries were doing layoffs. The only ones still are hiring are hospitality and healthcare.” She said the numbers further illustrate a “K-shaped” recovery in which larger companies remain stable while smaller ones struggle. “Larger companies are still hiring,” she wrote. “Smaller firms (under 50 workers) are doing the layoffs. It’s been a very tough year for small biz due to tariffs and more selective spending from lower and middle-class consumers.”
Kevin Gordon, head of macro research at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, noted that ADP has not reported such a sharp drop in small-business employment since October 2020, during the height of the COVID-19 crisis. Alex Jacquez, chief of policy and advocacy at the Groundwork Collaborative, cautioned that ADP numbers can diverge from official data but agreed the trend is troubling, writing that “in the absence of up to date government payrolls, all other signs point to a further deteriorating labor market.”
Charlie Bilello, chief market strategist at Creative Planning, said the report fits into a broader negative pattern, describing a three-month decline in jobs as “the first three-month decline since the 2020 recession,” and adding that “a year ago, we were adding over 200,000 jobs per month.”
Dean Baker, senior economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research, argued that the data fundamentally contradict Trump’s optimistic framing of the economy. “The booming job market exists only in Donald Trump’s demented head,” he wrote.