Politics
With ObamaCare Deadline Passed, Can Republicans Still Strike a Deal?
By Jake Beardslee · December 20, 2025
Republicans in Congress left Washington without reaching an agreement to extend enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies, allowing a key deadline to lapse and setting the stage for higher health insurance costs for millions of Americans.
Despite the missed cutoff, state health officials and some lawmakers say a bipartisan deal remains possible early next year, though it would come too late to prevent immediate premium increases tied to the expiration of the COVID-era tax credits.
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) aligned this week with conservative Republicans opposed to extending the enhanced subsidies, which have lowered insurance premiums for roughly 22 million people. The decision placed Johnson at odds with moderates in his conference, several of whom openly rebelled.
Four House Republicans joined Democrats in backing a discharge petition that would force a floor vote on extending the Affordable Care Act tax credits for an additional three years. While House passage of an extension remains likely, a similar measure has already failed in the Senate, complicating the path forward.
The internal GOP conflict has nonetheless renewed optimism among supporters of the subsidies, who argue that lawmakers could still act to blunt political fallout ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
“It’s too late to avoid the shock factor, but it’s not too late to do something about it,” Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) said. “Did I wish that we were in a better place for the many who are very, very anxious right now about the decisions that they and their family are making? Yes, I regret that we are there with that, but we cannot say it’s too late.”
Republicans have signaled that any future Senate deal would likely include new conditions, such as income caps or minimum premium contributions, changes that could further complicate implementation.
The deadline for Jan. 1 coverage enrollment passed earlier this week, meaning any agreement would likely come after consumers have already seen — and reacted to — higher prices. Analysts estimate that between 2.2 million and 7.3 million people could forgo renewing coverage due to rising premiums.
State officials warn that retroactively applying an extension would be operationally difficult, particularly if new eligibility rules are added. Still, marketplaces have experience implementing midyear changes, including when the enhanced credits were first approved in March 2021.
Consumers have already been exposed to higher projected costs since enrollment “window shopping” began in late October. Responses have varied, with some people switching to less comprehensive plans, while others dropped coverage entirely.
Early enrollment data from several states suggest growing affordability concerns. Idaho reported a 3 percent increase in overall marketplace enrollment, but also saw cancellations double compared with last year and new enrollments fall by nearly a quarter. Many enrollees downgraded to lower-tier plans.
“We saw many, many people wait until the very end to make a decision,” said Pat Kelly, executive director of Your Health Idaho, according to The Hill. “All of our indicators were people were coming back to our site. They were looking at things, but not making a final purchase decision. And we saw a larger than normal surge on the last day. All of that are clear indicators of affordability concerns.”
Kelly said implementing a clean subsidy extension could take about a week, but additional changes would extend that timeline.
“We were able to make the original changes back in 2021 [when the enhanced subsidies were first passed] in a matter of weeks. And I think if history is a predictor of the future, that’s a good thing to look back on.”