Politics

Americans Rate the 2026 Economy at Historic Lows

By Mike Harper · April 14, 2026

The numbers are in, and they are historic — not in a good way.

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 47.6 in its preliminary April reading, the lowest level ever recorded in data that stretches back to 1952. Lower than the financial crisis. Lower than the peak of Biden-era inflation. Lower than COVID. Every age group, every income bracket, every political affiliation posted declines. The breadth of the drop is almost as striking as the depth.

A new CBS News poll confirms the same underlying mood. 63% of Americans rated the economy as “bad,” and 65% disapproved of President Trump’s handling of economic conditions. Americans now expect prices to rise at an annual rate of 4.8% over the next year — up sharply from 3.8% in March.

The paradox is real and well documented: the headline economic indicators do not match the public mood. Unemployment stood at 4.3% in March. Inflation, even with the war-driven energy surge, is running at 3.3% annually. The S&P 500 is roughly flat for the year. GDP continues growing. By most technical measures the economy is holding.

But according to Axios, the administration faces the same trap that sank the Biden presidency — trying to tell Americans they’re better off than they feel. Jared Bernstein, Biden’s former top White House economist, put it directly: “Take it from me: Never try to tell the American people they’re better off than they think they are.”

The Iran war is the accelerant. Gas prices have surged with the Strait of Hormuz disruption, and 98% of the Michigan survey’s April interviews were conducted before last week’s ceasefire announcement — and before the talks collapsed and the blockade was announced over the weekend. The final April reading, due at month’s end, could look even worse.

Consumer expectations for the economy a year from now have fallen sharply. Businesses are equally pessimistic — business sentiment dropped 20% in April and sits 6% below where it was a year ago. The survey director noted that many open-ended responses explicitly blamed the Iran conflict for their deteriorating outlook.

What this means for the midterms is the question every strategist in both parties is now asking. In Trump’s first term, the economy was his political floor — the one issue where his numbers held even when everything else was underwater. Republicans still lost 40 House seats in the 2018 midterms with that floor intact. If economic sentiment is now the worst ever recorded, and approval ratings on other issues are also declining, the midterm math becomes harder to ignore.