Canadians Reconsider U.S. Travel, Potentially Deepening $50 Billion Travel Gap

Canadian Travel to U.S. Drops, Threatening $50B Tourism Deficit

Trips from Canada to the United States are falling, raising concerns that America’s already massive $50 billion travel and tourism deficit could deepen. Despite being the top source of international visitors to the U.S., Canadians are now reconsidering cross-border travel due to a combination of political tensions, economic concerns, and logistical frustrations. ClickerHappy / Pixabay

White House “51st State” Remark

According to a report by CNBC, the White House offered a controversial take on the trend. A spokesperson stated, “Canadians will no longer have to endure the inconveniences of international travel when Canada becomes our 51st state.” The representative also remarked that “everybody wants to come to President Trump’s America,” adding that Europeans are welcome to join the so-called “Golden Age of America if they so choose to.” Diego Delso / Wikimedia

Rising Visa Hurdles, Weak Dollar Fuel Canadian Hesitation

However, many Canadians are not convinced. Economic factors like the weak Canadian dollar, long visa processing times, and high-profile detainments of travelers—even those with valid visas—have dampened enthusiasm. President Trump's former trade tariffs and controversial remarks, including the suggestion of annexing Canada, have only added fuel to the fire. Daniel Joseph Petty / Pexels

Trudeau Urges Citizens: “Vacation at Home This Summer”

In response, former Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau urged citizens to “choose Canada” and to consider “changing your summer vacation plans to stay here in Canada and explore the many national and provincial parks, historical sites and tourist destinations our great country has to offer.” Fred Marvaux / European Union / Wikimedia

Cross-Border Trips Plunge: 23% Drop in Car Travel, 13% in Flights

The numbers paint a concerning picture. In 2024, the U.S. welcomed more than 72 million international visitors, still below pre-pandemic figures. Canadians made up 28% of these visitors, with Mexico close behind at 23%, according to a report from Jefferies. But Canadian travel is now falling off sharply. Return flights to Canada from the U.S. declined 13% year-over-year in February, while cross-border car trips dropped 23%, Statistics Canada reports. JESHOOTS-com / Pixabay

Border Town Hotels, Airlines See Sharp Declines in Demand

Hotel demand in border areas has also taken a hit—down 8% in Bellingham, Washington, and 3.5% near Niagara Falls. Canadian airline Flair canceled its planned Toronto–Nashville route, citing low demand. WestJet reported that Canadians are shifting away from U.S. destinations in favor of Mexico and the Caribbean. stanbalik / Pixabay

Credit Data Confirms Drop in U.S.-Bound Airline Spending

Consumer behavior backs this up. Bank of America data reveals that while overall credit and debit card spending rose 1.5% year-over-year, airline spending dropped 7.2%. United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby confirmed that they are cutting routes, citing “a lot of it trans-border, big drop in Canadian traffic to go into the U.S.” jarmoluk / Pixabay

Global Travel Warnings Target U.S. Over New Policies

Compounding the issue are travel warnings issued by Germany, the U.K., France, Denmark, and Finland. These advisories stem from new U.S. policies, including detentions of travelers with valid visas and an executive order recognizing only two biological sexes, which has raised red flags for travelers with gender markers like “X” on their passports. Germany advises such travelers to consult the U.S. embassy before traveling. ClickerHappy / Pixabay

Tourism Expert Warns of “Unforced Error After Unforced Error” in U.S. Travel Policy

In an interview with Forbes, Adam Sacks, president of Tourism Economics—an Oxford Economics company that tracks global travel data—warned that the U.S. is repeating past missteps in international tourism policy.

“The administration is committing unforced error after unforced error in the international tourism space,” Sacks said, referencing recent adversarial moves toward key allies. “There’s literally nothing to be gained from the sort of adversarial posturing that the administration has taken toward Canada. The same would be true of Europe, when Trump says that the European Union was formed in order to screw the United States. Nothing to be gained from that.”

Sacks pointed to data showing shifts in travel behavior during the Trump administration, including declines in travel intentions, cancellations, sentiment toward the U.S., and future bookings from certain international markets. “What we’re looking at now is a situation that is considerably worse than what we saw during Trump’s first term,” he said. JFK_Photography / Pixabay