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U.S. News

Census Bureau: Immigration Could Raise U.S. Population By 209 Million

By CM Chaney · November 12, 2023

In brief…

  • U.S. population projected to peak around 2080 then decline without steady immigration
  • High immigration could lead to 435 million people by 2100
  • Low or no immigration could cause population to drop below 2022 levels
  • Median age likely to rise given lower fertility rates
New Census Bureau projections suggest the U.S. population could peak and start declining by 2100 if immigration rates do not remain steady.  Noah Wulf / Wikimedia

New projections from the U.S. Census Bureau suggest the country’s population growth may peak and start declining later this century if immigration rates stay steady.

The projections indicate the U.S. population could reach around 370 million by 2080 before declining to only 9.7% above 2022 levels by 2100. However, immigration trends between now and 2100 could cause the population to swing by up to 209 million.

In a high immigration scenario, the U.S. could have as many as 435 million residents by 2100. But with low immigration, the population may peak at 346 million in 2043 before falling to 319 million by 2100.

If immigration ceased completely, the population could start declining in 2024, dropping to 226 million by 2100.

The projections account for factors like birth and death rates, COVID-19 mortality, and long-term fertility declines. The bureau said lower fertility means those 65 and over may outnumber children under 18 as early as 2028, depending on immigration.

The median age for Americans is also expected to rise in all scenarios. In 2022, the median age was 38.9 years old, but by 2100 it could range from 46.5 to 53.6 years old.