Politics

Democrats Eye Historic Gains in New Jersey

By Mike Harper · April 15, 2026

The streak is real — and Thursday’s special election in New Jersey will tell us how far it goes.

Democrats have now overperformed their 2024 margins in every special House election held during Trump’s second term. According to NBC News, the smallest Democratic overperformance in those six races has been 13 points. The largest was 25. The average is 18 points above their 2024 baseline. If that pattern holds Thursday in New Jersey’s 11th Congressional District, Democratic candidate Analilia Mejia could win by something close to 30 points.

In a district that went Democratic by roughly 13 points in 2024 — that would be a landslide by any measure.

The seat became vacant when Mikie Sherrill resigned to become New Jersey’s governor. Mejia, a progressive activist and co-executive director of the Center for Popular Democracy, won the Democratic primary in February over a crowded field that included former Rep. Tom Malinowski. She faces Republican Joe Hathaway, mayor of Randolph Township, in Thursday’s general election.

The fundraising gap is significant. Mejia raised $1.1 million to Hathaway’s $525,000. She entered the final stretch with more cash on hand as well. The district — centered in Morris County and covering suburban New York communities including Montclair and Morristown — leans Democratic but is not a fortress. Sherrill won it with 56.5% in 2024.

The political interpretation of these special elections has become its own debate. NBC’s Steve Kornacki noted that college-educated Democratic base voters are showing exceptional turnout in these races, while Republican turnout from infrequent voters who backed Trump in 2024 is lagging. The question is whether special election dynamics translate to a general election environment in November, when turnout patterns normalize and Trump himself is not on the ballot.

Skeptics on both sides point to that uncertainty. But six consecutive overperformances — across states and districts with varying compositions — is a difficult pattern to dismiss. Political scientists tracking competitive House seats see the trend as meaningful even if the magnitude may compress in November.

What’s unresolved is whether Thursday confirms the trend or represents a first break from it. Hathaway has pitched himself as someone who can attract anti-Trump voters looking for a Republican alternative, making the race a slightly different test than previous specials. Results will be available Thursday evening.