Politics

If Clarence Thomas Resigns, Here’s Who Trump Might Pick

By Jake Beardslee · June 13, 2025

With Supreme Court Justices Clarence Thomas, 76, and Samuel Alito, 75, now in their mid-70s, experts are speculating about whether either might retire during Donald Trump’s current presidential term. While no announcements have been made, the possibility, though considered slim, has drawn attention due to the potential long-term impact on the court’s ideological makeup.

Supreme Court scholar Adam Feldman told Newsweek that retirement for either judge is “unlikely but possible.” He noted, “Neither are terribly old by Supreme Court standards… If they have confidence that the next president will be a Republican then they have incentive to stay.” However, he also acknowledged the cautionary example of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, whose decision not to retire under President Obama led to her replacement by Justice Amy Coney Barrett under Trump.

Feldman has identified six judges who could be top contenders if a vacancy arises: Patrick J. Bumatay, Aileen M. Cannon, James C. Ho, Andrew S. Oldham, Neomi J. Rao, and Amul R. Thapar. Trump has previously said he wants to appoint “more justices like the ones I already picked,” referencing Brett Kavanaugh, Neil Gorsuch, and Amy Coney Barrett.

Feldman’s analysis suggests Judge James Ho is the most likely successor to Thomas, given his ideological alignment and the fact that he clerked for Thomas. Judge Andrew Oldham is viewed as the likeliest pick for replacing Alito.

Though Aileen Cannon has been involved in high-profile rulings favorable to Trump, Feldman said she lacks some traditional qualifications, such as having clerked for a Supreme Court justice. “My best guess is that Trump would appoint her to a federal appellate court first… although the Cannon likelihood goes up if there is a vacancy towards the end of Trump’s term,” he told Newsweek.

Feldman expanded on his view in his Legalytics Substack, writing, “My sense still is that Judge Ho is the obvious pick if Justice Thomas is the next justice to step down and Judge Oldham likely gets the nod if Justice Alito is the first to leave SCOTUS as recent history has shown that presidents may look first to a justice’s former clerk to as a replacement if possible.”

Though no retirement is imminent, the potential for one or two vacancies in the coming years could further solidify a conservative majority on the Supreme Court and cement Trump’s influence for decades.