Nate Silver Predicts: ‘My Gut Says’ Trump Will Win in 2024
By Jake Beardslee ·
October 23, 2024
Renowned polling expert Nate Silver has offered an analysis of the upcoming presidential election, suggesting that while his instinct leans toward a Trump victory, the race remains genuinely too close to call. Audrey Richardson and Ryan Garza / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
In a New York Times guest essay published Wednesday, Silver emphasized the importance of avoiding overreliance on intuition in political forecasting. Nikita Sokolsky / Wikimedia
"My gut says Donald Trump. And my guess is that it is true for many anxious Democrats," Silver acknowledged, while immediately cautioning that "I don't think you should put any value whatsoever on anyone's gut — including mine." Angela Wilhelm/Citizen Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
The founder of FiveThirtyEight stressed that the only responsible prediction at this stage is to view the race as an even split, particularly given the extremely tight polling in seven crucial battleground states. randy stewart from Seattle, WA, USA / Wikimedia
Recent developments have shown Trump gaining momentum, including his first lead in The Hill/Decision Desk HQ's forecast this past Sunday. Angela Wilhelm/Citizen Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
Silver delved into the complexities of polling accuracy, dismissing the popular "shy Trump voter" theory while highlighting more technical challenges in reaching Trump supporters. Katie Goodale / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
"Pollsters are attempting to correct for this problem with increasingly aggressive data-massaging techniques," Silver explained, though he noted that success isn't guaranteed. Jack Newton / Wikimedia
The analysis also explored potential scenarios favoring Vice President Harris, suggesting that pollsters might be overcorrecting for past mistakes. Adam Vander Kooy / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
"If pollsters are correcting for what was a once-in-a-century occurrence, they may be overdoing it this time," Silver observed, referring to the unique circumstances of the 2020 election. cottonbro studio / Pexels
Silver concluded his analysis by suggesting that despite the apparent deadlock, a decisive victory for either candidate remains possible.
"Don't be surprised if a relatively decisive win for one of the candidates is in the cards," he wrote, emphasizing the potential for significant shifts from previous voting patterns. David Rodriguez Munoz and Mandi Wright / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
