Politics

New Poll Gives GOP an Edge, but Dems Say ‘Big Ugly Bill’ Could Cost Them

By Jake Beardslee · June 25, 2025

A new poll shows Republicans surging ahead of Democrats as the 2026 midterm elections approach. According to results released by the Napolitan News Service and RMG Research, Republicans currently hold an 8-point lead over Democrats on the generic congressional ballot—marking the strongest GOP advantage in 2025 polling so far.

Conducted from June 18 to 19 among 1,000 registered voters, the poll found 52% would vote Republican and 44% Democratic. The shift represents a significant swing from earlier in the year, when Democrats had led by as much as five points in April. The poll carries a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points.

However, Democratic leaders are pushing back. Viet Shelton, spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), told Newsweek: “The midterms are shaping up to be a referendum on who is going to lower costs and help improve the lives of everyday Americans, not the wealthy and well-connected. By all accounts, House Republicans are failing miserably. Most Americans hate Republicans’ Big, Ugly Bill and it’s why House Democrats will re-take the majority.” He added that Democrats have “the better message, stronger candidates, more resources, and a favorable political environment as we go into 2026.”

The Napolitan poll diverges from most other recent surveys, which generally show Democrats with a modest lead. Unlike other pollsters, Napolitan pressed undecided respondents to indicate their leanings—resulting in only 2% of voters remaining undecided. A recent YouGov/The Economist poll, for comparison, showed Democrats ahead by 3 points, while RealClearPolling gives Democrats an average lead of 2.4 points.

Historical precedent complicates predictions. Although Republicans narrowly won the popular vote in 2022, they only picked up nine seats. In contrast, Democrats flipped 41 seats in their 2018 midterm wave.

Political analyst Harry Enten commented that the GOP’s legislative centerpiece—dubbed the “Big Beautiful Bill” by Trump—may backfire. “This is far more unpopular than those tax cuts were in 2017,” Enten said on CNN. “If this is the ‘Big Beautiful Bill,’ it may be a big beautiful bill for Democrats if it passes.”

Despite growing Republican momentum, GOP pollster Brent Buchanan offered a note of caution in a post on X: “Generic ballots don’t swing this hard month-to-month… Is GOP doing well? Yes. Doing this well? No.”

Midterm elections are scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2026. With primary elections scattered throughout the year, the full landscape of candidates and momentum remains uncertain.