Politics
Poll Shows Top Democrats for 2028 Presidential Race
By Jake Beardslee · December 20, 2025
Early polling suggests the Democratic field for the 2028 presidential nomination remains unsettled, with support shifting among several high-profile figures more than two years before the contest formally begins.
California Governor Gavin Newsom initially emerged as an early frontrunner, leading the field in both an Emerson College Poll and a Yale Youth Poll. Those early advantages, however, have narrowed in more recent surveys, indicating increasing competition within the party.
A poll conducted by Noble Predictive Insights found former Vice President Kamala Harris ahead of Newsom by a wide margin, 33 percent to 13 percent. Neither Harris nor Newsom has declared a candidacy. The polling firm cited Harris’s broader national visibility and perceived campaign readiness as factors behind her rising support.
Additional data reinforces that trend. A Big Data Poll released this month placed Harris ahead of Newsom nationally, with Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg also drawing notable support. Aggregated polling tracked by RealClearPolitics similarly shows Harris consistently ranking among Democratic voters’ top choices.
Polling also highlights demographic divisions within the party. Harris performs strongly among Black voters and younger Democrats, while Newsom’s support is more concentrated among older voters and those in Western states.
Newsom has remained highly visible nationally, frequently criticizing the Trump administration online and promoting a California ballot initiative aimed at increasing Democratic representation in Congress through redistricting. Discussing the political moment, Newsom said, “People talk about it and you’d be lying if you haven’t thought about it, processed it. But quite literally I’m making the case – that’s why I have this initiative, Prop 50 – there might not be a 2028 election that’s free and fair.”
He added, “I just think we’re on the other side of something radically different, not marginally different. Everything has changed in terms of my mindset, my focus, my energy, my perspective on the world we’re living in.”
Addressing his redistricting effort, Newsom said, “The narrative is going to shift: Democrats are finally now no longer on their back heels, they’re on their toes.” He continued, “It’s about weakness versus strength, and the challenge the Democrats have had is we’ve appeared weak and meek. And now we are asserting ourselves.”
Despite losing ground in some polls, Newsom continues to maintain a favorable standing among Democratic voters. Along with Harris, other figures frequently cited as leading contenders include Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, as the party’s early 2028 landscape continues to evolve.