Politics
Newsom Support Plummets in 2028 Poll
By Jake Beardslee · October 22, 2025
Poll Shows Newsom’s Support Slipping Among Democrats and Independents
California Governor Gavin Newsom has taken a hit in early polling for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination. According to a new survey by Noble Predictive Insights, conducted between October 2 and 6, Newsom’s support has dropped significantly since August—placing him behind former Vice President Kamala Harris among both Democrats and Independents. Bureau of Reclamation, CC BY-SA 2.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0, via Wikimedia Commons
Harris Leads Newsom in Early 2028 Democratic Primary Poll
The poll found Harris leading the field with support from 33% of Democrats and 27% of Independents, while Newsom trailed with 13% and 3%, respectively. Seventeen percent of respondents said they were undecided about a potential Democratic primary choice. Saul Loeb-Pool via Imagn Images
Harris Leads Across Key Demographics
The Noble Predictive Insights poll showed Harris outperforming Newsom across nearly every major demographic. She drew particularly strong support from Black voters (54%), Southerners (40%), and younger Americans, with 44% support among ages 18–29 and 42% among ages 30–44. Harris also polled roughly twice as well among women and lower-income voters earning under $50,000 annually (36% to 18%). Richard Burkhart/ USA Today Network / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
Newsom Holds Edge Among Older and Western Voters in 2028 Poll
Newsom led Harris only among Western voters (30% to 25%) and seniors aged 65 and older (29% to 18%). The two were nearly tied among white, college-educated, and higher-income voters earning over $100,000 per year, differing by only one or two points. Mike De Sisti-USA TODAY
Newsom’s Momentum Fades After August Surge
Newsom’s slide comes after a brief surge in the summer, when his aggressive social media campaign targeting Donald Trump briefly boosted his popularity. His team embraced an uncharacteristically brash online persona, sharing AI-generated memes, pop culture references, and all-caps taunts that mirrored the former president’s style.In an early August POLITICO–Citrin Center–Possibility Lab survey, Newsom led Harris 25% to 19% among California’s registered Democrats and left-leaning Independents. The latest data, however, suggest that surge has not lasted. Jack Gruber / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
Other Potential Contenders Emerge
Behind Harris and Newsom, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez polled at 8%, followed by former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg (7%). Governors Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania and JB Pritzker of Illinois each received 4%, while Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer registered 3% and Maryland Governor Wes Moore stood at 1%. Michael Karas-NorthJersey.com / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images