Poll: Trump's Chances of Winning a Third Term Against Barack Obama

Poll: Obama Beats Trump in Hypothetical 2028 Matchup

A new poll suggests that if former President Barack Obama and President Donald Trump could face off in a hypothetical 2028 presidential race, Obama would come out on top. According to an Overton Insights poll surveying 1,103 registered voters, Obama would defeat Trump 53% to 47%—if the U.S. Constitution were amended to allow presidents to serve more than two terms. DoD photo by U.S. Air Force Staff Sgt. Marianique Santos / Wikimedia

22nd Amendment Blocks Both Obama and Trump from Running Again

The 22nd Amendment currently bars both men from seeking another term. It states: "No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice." However, speculation over a third term has been stoked by Trump himself. Jesusemen Oni / VOA / Wikimedia

Trump on Facing Obama: "I'd Love That, Boy, I'd Love That"

On March 31, when asked whether he would like to run against Obama in 2028, Trump said, "I'd love that, boy, I'd love that. That would be a good one." He continued, "People are asking me to run... there's a whole story about running for a third term. I don't know. I never looked into it. They do say there's a way you can do it, but I don't know about that." The White House / Wikimedia

Trump Again Hints at Seeking a Third Term—"Not Joking"

This isn’t the first time Trump has floated the idea of extending his tenure. In an interview with NBC's Kristen Welker, Trump asserted he was "not joking" about pursuing a third term and claimed there were "methods which you could do it." The White House / Wikimedia

Trump's VP Loophole Idea Would Likely Be Unconstitutional

One such scenario, floated during an NBC News interview, involved JD Vance running for president with Trump as his vice president, only for Vance to resign and hand power to Trump. When asked about the possibility, Trump responded that it was “one” way it could happen. The maneuver would almost certainly be unconstitutional, as the 12th Amendment explicitly states that anyone ineligible to serve as president cannot be elected vice president either. Office of Vice President of the United States / Wikimedia

GOP Rep Pushes Amendment—Would Only Help Trump, Not Obama

In January, GOP Representative Andy Ogles of Tennessee introduced a resolution to amend the 22nd Amendment to allow a president to be elected up to three times. However, Ogles’ proposed amendment would still bar former two-term presidents like Obama and George W. Bush from running again, favoring only Trump’s path to a third term following a break. Library of Congress / Wikimedia

Expert Warns: Third Term Could Trigger Constitutional Crisis

Experts are skeptical. Former federal prosecutor Neama Rahmani told Newsweek, "Politically, Trump doesn't have the votes to repeal the 22nd Amendment... Failing to do so would trigger a constitutional crisis and throw the country into chaos." Pixabay

Third-Term Talk Remains Fantasy Without Massive Legal Overhaul

Though highly speculative, Trump’s musings on a third term continue to dominate headlines. Legal experts maintain such an outcome remains virtually impossible without a monumental constitutional shift—an effort requiring bipartisan approval from Congress and 38 of the 50 states. For now, Trump’s political future is tethered to the reality of two-term limits. David Dibert / Pexels