RFK Jr.’s Campaign a Wildcard in Biden-Trump 2024 Rematch
By Jake Beardslee ·
April 2, 2024
The 2024 presidential election is shaping up to be a rematch between incumbent President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, the presumptive nominees for their respective parties. However, they are facing a third-party challenge from Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the nephew of former President John F. Kennedy. Gage Skidmore from Surprise, AZ, United States of America/Wikimedia
Kennedy has been working to gather enough signatures to get on the ballot in as many states as possible, running an independent campaign for the presidency. Gage Skidmore from Surprise, AZ, United States of America/Wikimedia
While he has only secured spots on the ballot in about half a dozen states so far, early polling suggests he may be the most impactful third-party candidate since businessman Ross Perot in 1992. Craig A. Fincher/Wikimedia
Polls from The Hill/Decision Desk HQ show Kennedy averaging close to 10 percent support in a hypothetical five-way race that includes Jill Stein and Cornel West. Gage Skidmore from Surprise, AZ, United States of America/Wikimedia
The RealClearPolitics national average puts him at 10 percent in such a scenario. Gage Skidmore from Surprise, AZ, United States of America/Wikimedia
"Our campaign is a spoiler. I agree with that," Kennedy said at an event announcing Nicole Shanahan as his running mate. "It's a spoiler for President Biden and for President Trump. It's a spoiler for the war machine. It's a spoiler for Wall Street and Big Ag and Big Tech … and all the corrupt politicians and corporations." Gage Skidmore from Surprise, AZ, United States of America/Wikimedia
While third-party candidates have influenced election outcomes in the past by playing spoiler, Kennedy faces long odds in seriously challenging Biden and Trump or winning any states outright based on historical precedents. Joe Biden: Gage Skidmore from Peoria, AZ, United States of America (source: Joe Biden); User:TDKR Chicago 101 (clipping)Donald Trump: Shealah Craighead (source: White House)Сombination: krassotkin/Wikimedia
Perot, the most successful modern third-party candidate, received only about 19 percent of the popular vote and won no electoral votes in 1992. Allan warren/Wikimedia
Polls have offered mixed signals on whether Kennedy's candidacy may be hurting Biden or Trump more at this stage. Tom Williams/Wikimedia
Some surveys suggest a slight advantage for Trump when Kennedy is included, while others indicate Biden's lead narrows but he maintains an edge. Gage Skidmore from Peoria, AZ, United States of America/Wikimedia
The Democratic Party has ramped up efforts to address risks posed by third-party candidates like Kennedy, with the Democratic National Committee forming a team to communicate about and research potential spoilers. Gage Skidmore from Peoria, AZ, United States of America/Wikimedia
Kennedy, an environmental lawyer, has taken some controversial stances like expressing vaccine skepticism during the COVID-19 pandemic. Daniel Schwen/Wikimedia
But his background advocating for regulations and wealth equality could appeal to disillusioned Democrats. Gage Skidmore from Surprise, AZ, United States of America/Wikimedia
Although Kennedy's campaign is not radically shifting polling numbers yet compared to a two-person Biden-Trump race, the election is expected to be very close, so a slight impact from third-party candidates like him could make a difference. Staff Sgt. Marianique Santos/Wikimedia
