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Biden’s 2024 prospects against Trump: Swing states spell trouble

By Jake Beardslee · February 21, 2024

In brief…

  • New polls show Trump leading Biden in Michigan, Georgia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina
  • Biden's favorability numbers continue to lag Trump's despite Trump's legal issues
  • Trump's lead over Biden appeared to grow when third-party candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. were included as options in some of the swing state polls
Despite Trump's legal troubles, new polls indicate he is leading Biden in several swing states that could determine the 2024 election outcome, though some question the polls' credibility.  Joe Biden: Gage Skidmore from Peoria, AZ, United States of America (source: Joe Biden); User:TDKR Chicago 101 (clipping)Donald Trump: Shealah Craighead (source: White House)–°ombination/Wikimedia

Alarming new polls show former President Donald Trump leading incumbent President Joe Biden in several key swing states that could decide the 2024 election. The Emerson College/The Hill polls found Trump ahead of Biden by 6 points in Georgia (48% to 42%), 2 points in Pennsylvania (45% to 43%), and 3 points in North Carolina (47% to 44%).

In Michigan, a survey by firm EPIC-MRA showed Trump leading Biden 45% to 41%. EPIC-MRA’s president told Newsweek, “The other thing Biden must do is have ads showing all of the mental lapses of Trump, which may well be greater than Biden’s mental lapses.”

The surveys suggest Biden’s popularity ratings remain behind Trump’s. The Echelon Insights poll revealed that a greater percentage of respondents, 58%, had an unfavorable view of Biden compared to 55% who viewed Trump unfavorably. Notably, more voters expressed concern about Biden’s advanced age, which has emerged as a significant issue according to numerous polls across the country, than about the four indictments faced by Trump.