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Trump, if convicted, would lose to Biden by 6 pts according to poll

By Jake Beardslee · September 21, 2023

In brief…

  • A new poll shows President Biden leading former President Trump by 6 points in the 2024 natonal election should Trump be convicted of any of the four felony charges he now faces.
  • 63% of poll respondents said Trump should have been charged for interfering in the Georgia election.
  • Trump's convictions could cause shockwaves in the GOP and hand Biden a second term.
  • A Trump conviction could jeopardize Republican control of the House.
If convicted on any of his four felony indictments Trump could lose to Biden in 2024 and put GOP Congressional control at risk according to a new poll.  Gage Skidmore from Peoria, AZ, United States of America/Wikimedia

A new poll shows President Joe Biden beating former President Donald Trump by 6 percentage points in a hypothetical 2024 election matchup - provided Trump is convicted of any of the four felony indictments currently filed against him.

The poll found Biden with 45% support compared to Trump’s 39% among voters should Trump be convicted of a felony.

Trump faces indictments for illegally retaining classified documents after leaving office, paying hush money to an adult-film star before the 2016 election, attempting to overturn the 2020 election results in Georgia, and 2020 election subversion in Washington, DC.

Without any convictions, the same poll shows Biden leading Trump 43% to 41% with 11% undecided.

Conducted by WPA Intelligence - which has ties to the Ron DeSantis campaign - the poll found that 63% of all voters believe Trump should have been charged for interfering in the Georgia election. A whopping 76% of undecided voters agreed that it was right for Trump to be charged in Georgia.

If Trump is convicted, the poll shows Biden’s support among independent voters at 44% compared to Trump’s 30% support.

Republican support for Trump would drop from 86% to 81% if he is convicted, according to the poll, with at least 6% of Republicans saying they would not vote in 2024 at all if Trump is convicted but still wins the GOP nomination.

Poll director Amanda Iovino said one or more Trump convictions could be crippling to the GOP.

She told the New York Post, “If a jury were to convict him on any of the four pending cases, it could send shockwaves through the Republican Party and Trump’s campaign, with a significant faction of GOP voters indicating they might abstain from the 2024 election altogether. Not only would this hand Biden another four years, it could cost Republicans the House and jeopardize gains in the Senate.”

Trump campaign spokesperson Steven Cheung dismissed the results as “another moronic and fake poll” trying to manufacture an advantage for Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who the poll’s sponsor supports for the 2024 Republican nomination, according to the New York Post.