Politics

Democrats Say They Are on the Brink of Ending Trump’s Iran War

By Mike Harper · May 18, 2026

Eight weeks ago, the first Senate vote to curtail Trump’s Iran war powers failed 46-51. On Wednesday it failed 49-50. The trajectory is the story.

Democrats in both chambers say they are within striking distance of passing a war powers resolution that would force Trump to end or get congressional authorization for military operations in Iran, as the growing financial cost of the conflict and Trump’s escalating rhetoric about American families have accelerated the defection of Republicans who had previously held the line.

The math is concrete. The Senate has 100 members. The war powers resolution needs 51 votes to pass. As of Wednesday’s vote, it had 49 — including three Republicans: Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Susan Collins of Maine, and Rand Paul of Kentucky. One additional Republican vote flips the chamber. Senator Pete Ricketts of Nebraska was absent from Wednesday’s vote. Senator Dan Sullivan of Alaska, who is in a competitive reelection race, voted no but has privately expressed reservations. Several others — Thom Tillis of North Carolina, John Curtis of Utah, Josh Hawley of Missouri — have signaled concern about the war’s direction without yet voting for limits.

What is moving these numbers is not a change in the underlying legal argument — that argument has been the same since February 28 — but a change in the political environment around it. Trump’s approval rating has fallen to 37%, its lowest point of either term. Gas prices sat at $4.39 per gallon nationally last week. The April CPI came in at 3.8% annually, the highest since 2023. And Trump, departing for Beijing last Tuesday, told a reporter that he “doesn’t think about Americans’ financial situation” when considering Iran negotiations.

That quote landed directly in Murkowski’s floor statement explaining her historic first vote in favor of a war powers resolution: “Further military action against Iran must have a clear mission, achievable goals, and a defined strategy for bringing the conflict to a close.”

In the House, a parallel resolution narrowly failed Thursday with more Republican defections than any prior House vote on the question. The cross-chamber pattern — both chambers moving in the same direction in the same week — is what Democrats are describing as a breakthrough moment rather than just another failed vote.

Senator Jeff Merkley of Oregon, the Democratic sponsor of the Senate resolution, has been direct about the political strategy: force Republicans onto the record repeatedly, let the economic pain accumulate, and wait for the coalition to reach 51. “My colleagues and I have been forcing votes to stop the war against Iran — and we’re making progress,” Merkley said after Wednesday’s vote.

Whether the next vote — which Democrats have not yet scheduled but say is coming — flips from 49 to 51 depends on what happens in the interval. Another month of $4.50 gas. Another trade negotiation with China that sidelins Iran. Another Trump comment about American families. Any of those could be the pressure that moves the last vote needed.