Politics

Silver: Polls Could Be ‘Overestimating’ Trump After ‘Huge’ Miss

By Jake Beardslee · November 6, 2025

Polling Concerns After Democratic Upset

Pollster Nate Silver has raised concerns that surveys may be overstating President Donald Trump’s support, following what he described as a “huge” polling miss in New Jersey’s gubernatorial race. In his Silver Bulletin newsletter, Silver said polls were “not great,” particularly in New Jersey, where pre-election surveys had suggested a close contest between Democratic Governor-elect Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli.

Democrats Surge in State Races

Democrats swept major elections this week, securing victories in both New Jersey and Virginia and notching key wins across the country. The results have revived optimism within the party ahead of the 2026 midterms, as Democrats aim to regain control of Congress.

Polls Miss Sherrill’s Margin

Real Clear Politics’ polling average had shown Sherrill leading by just three points, but she ultimately won by 13 — ten points higher than expected. Silver noted the discrepancy as “more than twice as large as the overestimation of Hillary Clinton in 2016.” Sherrill also outperformed former Vice President Kamala Harris, who carried New Jersey by only six points in the 2024 presidential election.

Silver Suggests Poll Bias May Flip

“There’s also, just perhaps, a question of whether the polls are actually overestimating Trump after three presidential elections in a row where they lowballed him,” Silver wrote. He added that Democrats now have a “considerable upside” heading into the midterms, as “different sorts of Democrats in different sorts of elections all [performed] strongly.”

Virginia Results Add to Democratic Momentum

Polls in Virginia proved slightly more accurate. Former Democratic U.S. Representative Abigail Spanberger defeated Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears by nearly 15 points, outperforming her Real Clear Politics polling lead of 10 points.

Analysts and Journalists Weigh In

Journalist Dave Weigel wrote on X that “polls underestimated Mikie Sherrill’s strength in #NJGov,” adding that she achieved “the biggest Dem margin in 24 years, bigger than Murphy ’17.”
Lakshya Jain of SplitTicket added that forecasters “went out on a limb” suggesting Sherrill was struggling, saying those “takes have aged particularly poorly.”

Sherrill’s Victory Message

During her victory speech, Sherrill said, “Here in New Jersey, we know that this nation has not ever been, nor will it ever be, ruled by kings. We take oaths to a Constitution, not a king. We’ve chosen liberty, the very foundation of democracy, and we’ve chosen prosperity necessary to create opportunity for all.”

Looking Ahead to 2026

Every House seat and one-third of Senate seats will be on the ballot in 2026. With Democrats buoyed by their recent wins, the question now is whether polling models can more accurately capture voter sentiment — particularly Trump’s base — ahead of the high-stakes midterms.