Politics
New Poll: Democrats May Win Texas Senate Seat for the First Time in 33 Years
By Jake Beardslee · May 2, 2025
Poll Suggests Democrat Could Win Rare Texas Senate Seat
Texas could see its first Democratic U.S. Senator in over three decades, according to new Republican polling obtained by the Houston Chronicle. The survey suggests Democrat Colin Allred could defeat Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in a hypothetical 2026 matchup for the Senate seat currently held by Republican John Cornyn. Clark Van Der Beken / Unsplash
Allred Leads Paxton by Double Digits in Internal GOP Survey
The internal GOP poll, conducted in April by a firm founded by Brad Parscale, former campaign manager for Donald Trump, showed Allred leading Paxton 52% to 37% among 1,000 likely Texas voters, according to the Chronicle. The poll did not measure support for other potential Democratic contenders. Ronald W. Erdrich/Reporter-News / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
Allred Weighs Senate Run After Loss to Cruz in 2024
If successful, Allred—who served in Congress from 2019 to 2025 and previously lost to Sen. Ted Cruz in 2024—would become the first Democrat elected to the Senate from Texas since Robert Krueger in 1993. Allred has not confirmed whether he will enter the race but has stated he is considering it. Ronald W. Erdrich/Reporter-News / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
Paxton Outpaces Cornyn in Republican Primary Poll
The same pollster also surveyed 605 likely Republican primary voters and found Paxton ahead of Cornyn by 17 points, indicating serious vulnerabilities for the incumbent. Cornyn, who has served in the Senate since 2002, has come under attack from Paxton and hardline Trump supporters. Paxton, recently acquitted by the Texas Senate on 16 articles of impeachment, has vowed to "champion President Trump's legislative priorities." Gage Skidmore / Wikimedia
GOP Infighting Escalates Between Paxton and Cornyn
The Republican primary has already turned sharply personal. Cornyn recently labeled Paxton "a con man and a fraud," while Paxton responded by accusing Cornyn of representing "the Bush wing of the GOP." USDAgov / Wikimedia
Beto O’Rourke Signals Openness to Another Senate Bid
Beto O’Rourke, the former Democratic Congressman who lost a 2022 bid for governor, has also signaled interest in running. At a town hall in Denton, he told attendees, “If it comes to pass that this is what the people of Texas want… then yes I will.” Gage Skidmore / Wikimedia
Republican Senator Warns Cornyn May Be in Trouble
Texas State Senator Paul Bettencourt, a Republican, didn’t mince words about the polling, telling the Chronicle: “If I was an incumbent senator with these types of polling numbers, I probably wouldn't run because you can't win.” Ricardo B. Brazziell/American-Statesman / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
Cornyn Campaign Pushes Back, Defends Trump Record
Cornyn's camp remains defiant. In a recent statement, his spokesperson said: “During his first term, John Cornyn voted with President Trump more than 95 percent of current Senators… [He] won’t be outsmarted by Chuck Schumer.” Ricardo B. Brazziell/American-Statesman / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
Democrats Eye Senate Majority as 2026 Looms
The 2026 midterms are shaping up to be crucial for Democrats, who currently hold 47 Senate seats (including independents who caucus with them) compared to Republicans’ 53. Marek Studzinski / Wikimedia