Politics

Seven Democratic House Members Could Lose Their Districts After the VRA Ruling

By Mike Harper · May 4, 2026

The Supreme Court’s Louisiana v. Callais decision last Wednesday was described in terms of legal theory — Section 2, the Gingles test, racial gerrymanders, equal protection. Here is what it means in practice: seven sitting Democratic members of Congress now represent districts that could be redrawn out from under them before November.

Both Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball — the two most widely respected nonpartisan election handicappers in the country — identified the same seven seats as immediately at risk following the ruling. All seven are in the South. All seven are currently held by Black Democrats. All seven exist because of majority-minority district requirements under the Voting Rights Act that the ruling has now effectively dismantled.

Louisiana: Democratic Rep. Troy Carter Sr.’s 2nd Congressional District — one of the two majority-Black districts the Supreme Court’s ruling directly addressed — and the 6th Congressional District held by Rep. Cleo Fields, which the court’s ruling deemed an illegal racial gerrymander.

Alabama: Both of the state’s Democratic House members — Rep. Shomari Figures and Rep. Terri Sewell — could face redrawn maps. Alabama has already asked the Supreme Court to expedite consideration of how the ruling applies to its current districts.

Mississippi: Rep. Bennie Thompson, the state’s only Democratic House member, represents the 2nd Congressional District — a majority-Black district that Mississippi Republicans have been trying to redraw for years.

Tennessee: Rep. Steve Cohen, the Memphis-area Democrat and the only Democrat in Tennessee’s congressional delegation, represents a district that GOP state legislators have already publicly discussed targeting. Trump called Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee to personally request action.

South Carolina: Rep. James Clyburn, the most senior Democrat in the House and a former Majority Whip, represents South Carolina’s 6th Congressional District. Any redraw that dilutes the district’s Black majority would put one of the most prominent Democrats in Congress in a competitive race.

Kyle Kondik of Sabato’s Crystal Ball was measured about the timeline. “The decision may or may not have a major, immediate impact on 2026, but its ripple effects will be felt more deeply in subsequent elections,” he said. The obstacle for most states is time: primaries have already happened in several states, candidate filing deadlines have passed, and last-minute changes to maps could run into the “Purcell principle,” which prohibits courts from changing election rules too close to an election.

Louisiana has already acted, with Governor Jeff Landry suspending the May 16 primary to allow for redistricting. Alabama and Tennessee called special legislative sessions Friday. Mississippi’s governor announced a session would happen 21 days after the ruling — meaning May 20. Georgia’s governor said his state would not redraw maps before November.

In a best-case scenario for Republicans — all four states redraw, all maps survive legal challenge, no Purcell objection holds — Democrats could lose as many as nine seats from the combined effect of the ruling and the Florida gerrymander passed last week. Combined with the nine seats Republicans already added through redistricting in Texas, North Carolina, Missouri, and Ohio, the total potential Republican gain from redistricting alone approaches 18 House seats.

Democrats, who had been favored to retake the House based on Trump’s approval numbers and historical midterm patterns, are now looking at a map that may require them to outperform their numbers significantly just to break even.

“Politicians are picking their voters,” Senator Raphael Warnock of Georgia said Sunday — the clearest summary of what the ruling has produced.