Politics
Trump Is More Unpopular Now Than He Was After January 6
By Mike Harper · May 4, 2026
The Capitol breach on January 6, 2021, pushed Donald Trump’s approval rating to its lowest point of his first term. His second term has now produced numbers worse than that — and it took ten weeks.
A Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll released Sunday found Trump’s disapproval rating at 62% — the highest recorded across both of his terms in office — with his overall approval sitting at 37%. The survey was conducted April 24-28 among 2,560 U.S. adults and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
The driving factor is not immigration, not the courts, not any of the controversies that dominated his first term. It is gas prices and the cost of living — the two household issues Trump most aggressively claimed he would fix in his 2024 campaign.
On inflation: 72% of respondents disapprove of Trump’s handling of it — a 7-point increase from February.
On cost of living: 76% disapprove. Only 23% approve.
On the Iran war itself: 66% disapprove of how Trump is handling it. 33% approve.
Those numbers reflect a direct and measurable household consequence. Gas at the pump averaged $4.30 nationally by late April. Core inflation hit a two-year high of 3.5% in March. Consumer sentiment in April recorded its lowest-ever reading — worse than 2008 and the pandemic. Spirit Airlines announced its shutdown last week, citing rising fuel costs as a primary factor. The economic squeeze generated by ten weeks of war in the Persian Gulf has landed directly on the people Trump promised to help most.
The demographic that matters most for the midterms is not moving his way. Republican-leaning independents — the voters who provided the margin in key swing districts in 2024 — now approve of Trump at just 56%, a record low for that group during his presidency. His approval among independents overall sits at 25%.
The structural danger for Republicans is clear. Democrats now hold a five-point advantage over Republicans on which party people favor in House elections — up from a two-point advantage in February. Among registered voters who describe themselves as “absolutely certain to vote,” that advantage grows to nine points.
Trump’s strongest remaining issue is immigration, where 45% still approve of his handling of the situation. That 45% is also his floor — the number has not moved meaningfully despite everything that has happened since February. What has moved is everything above the floor. The voters who were willing to tolerate his immigration approach in exchange for a better economy are now getting neither a better economy nor relief from the war whose cost they are absorbing every time they fill their tank.
Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said Sunday on ABC’s This Week that Americans will feel “immediate relief” once the Strait of Hormuz opens. The strait remains closed. The blockade remains in place. The next scheduled polling period has not been announced.