U.S. News

Unemployment Claims Hit 248,000, Approaching Dangerous ‘Threshold’: Economists

By Jake Beardslee · June 13, 2025

Unemployment claims in the United States rose to 248,000 last week, approaching a critical threshold that economists view as a potential signal of an impending recession. Tuan Nguyen, an economist at RSM US LLP, wrote, “New filings for unemployment benefits continued to climb last week, reaching 248,000 and for the second week in a row nearing our threshold of 250,000 that suggests risk of a recession.”

The number of continuing claims, which counts workers still receiving unemployment benefits weeks after their initial application, reached 1.956 million, according to Nguyen. This is the highest figure recorded since November 2021. Nguyen attributed the rise to mass layoffs of federal employees and a weakening labor market. “If continuing claims continue to rise, it will be time to worry more about the labor market,” he said.

Bloomberg reported that the increase in jobless claims adds to mounting evidence that it is taking unemployed Americans longer to secure new jobs. Nguyen added that while claims typically peak in June or July, the labor market this year is “much softer than in the previous two years, while hiring has slowed down materially because of trade uncertainty.”

Although the stock market rebounded in part due to President Donald Trump pausing his new tariffs on U.S. trading partners, small businesses remain under pressure. Matt Kubancik, a retailer and Trump supporter based in Louisville, Kentucky, described the president’s second term as a “vacation from hell,” according to CNBC. His business relies on Chinese imports, and the uncertainty surrounding tariff rates has made it difficult to operate. “Even now, tariff rates with China are at historically high at 30%,” Kubancik told CNBC. He added, “This made it enough to switch parties,” despite previously identifying as a lifelong Republican.

The U.S. economy added 139,000 jobs in the most recent report, but only 37,000 were in the private sector, marking the lowest such figure since March 2023. For college graduates and those new to the workforce, this job market is among the most challenging in years. Carrie Freestone, an economist with RBC Capital Markets, told Yahoo Finance, “Nobody is wanting to ramp up hiring when they don’t know what’s going to happen down the line.”